It’s Early December, But I’m Already Feeling Good About 2013

A couple of things just give me a warm feeling. Mike Rizzo saying they’ve pretty much laid their offer to LaRoche on the table and are not changing it. We’ve come a long way from a few years ago where we had to way overpay to sign a ‘big’ free agent in Werth. Haren signed a 1-year deal to play here because he wants to win. Rizzo is now holding fast because he believes LaRoche feels the same way. With Loney and Napoli being signed and filling 1B needs for other teams, the market for LaRoche is growing smaller. I’d welcome him back, but again only for the 2 year deal.

If that happens, some baseball minds are saying that we’ll trade Michael Morse. I would hope that only happens if we get some solid value in return, not just a few low level minor league guys. Sure, he’ll be a free agent next year and if we lose him we’ll get nothing. But these are the new Nats. We don’t have to wring every piece of value at every turn. In past years, we did this to prepare for the future. Well, the future is here. I’d be happy keeping morse. There will always be injuries on any given team. Look at the outfield last year. Morse himself missed significant time, as did Werth. While I don’t wish for injuries, they do happen and it would be great to have Morse around for insurance. I really like his bat, and I believe he’s well-liked by teammates and an important part of the clubhouse. The biggest issue may be a roster crunch, with Tyler Moore and Roger Bernadina both needing bench spots as well. But it’s still early in this process, and the roster numbers are a long way out from being detemined.

Lots of Action at Winter Meetings

First off, I like to see the addition of Dan Haren to the pitching staff. I expect he’ll be an almost identical plug-in for Edwin Jackson, in terms of eating innings and hopefully hitting a double-digit win total. He brings some solid veteran experience to the staff and team. But he’s also a few years older than Edwin, and he had some injury issues last season. Let’s hope he does not break down this season and leave us with a hole there. Kudos to Mike Rizzo for getting him on a one-year deal. Also great that we did not have to surrender any draft picks, since he was non-tendered by the Angels.

On the flip side of this, the move apparently puts to rest for now the rumors of an Espinosa for Shields deal with the Rays. I’ve been meaning to examine our second base situation, and this provides a good opportunity. Simply put, Espinosa needs to cut down on his strikeout total or he needs to be traded or moved into a utility role. He’s a great fielder, but his batting average and strikeout totals need to improve if he is to remain an everyday player. Hopefully the rumors will serve as a wakeup call to him and he will work on his hitting in the offseason. I’d be interested to see what Lombo could do in a full-time role. Obviously you lose some power, but his average might make up for it in other ways. His range is also similar to Espinosa’s. We’ll see what happens in this regard over the next few weeks.

Nats Acquire Span; LaRoche Probably Gone

The Nats traded for Denard Span today, dealing Alex Meyer to the Twins. The move likely means the Nats weren’t feeling good about re-signing LaRoche. That either means Michael Morse will play first base, or he will be traded. While his defense at first is nothing close to LaRoche’s, I kind of hope he stays there, in the spirit of team continuity and clubhouse cohesiveness. The Nats have great chemistry in their clubhouse, and to me that’s one of the biggest intangibles in baseball. I’d hate to see a lot of disruption there. As for losing Meyer, I hate to see a young pitcher with such promise get traded, but since it’s for a bona fide starter whom the Nationals control for the next 3 seasons, I can see why they made the deal. You need to give up quality to get quality. As for LaRoche, it will be interesting to see where he ends up. If it’s with a bottom-dweller, he may find himself wishing later he hadn’t demanded an additional year and a few extra million for his last big contract versus a chance to get to the playoffs for the next 2 years. Some guys are motivated by competing for a title, and some just want the big money. I thought he was the former, but time will tell if he is the latter.

Postseason Thoughts and Initial Hot Stove Review

It’s been long enough since our heartbreaking end to the season that I can compose some thoughts without letting my emotions run roughshod over my writing. I can find solace in the fact that we are a team on the upswing and not an aging squad that was giving it one last hurrah this season. We were the second youngest team in the majors this season, which makes the team’s accomplishments that much more admirable. Congratulations to the 2012 team. You really provided us with a great season.

Moving on to our potential offseason moves, thankfully we don’t have a ton of holes to fill. We do have some interesting questions though. The first is obviously first base. I was at the game where the crowd cheered loudly when LaRoche got his 100th RBI. But that subtle uptick from a 2-digit to 3-digit total, combined with his subsequent Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, likely made his new salary demand jump by a few million per year. I believe the key here is not the money though. If he would sign for 2 years, I’d love to have him back. His glove was truly impressive and saved a lot of potential errors this year. But I would not want to get locked into a deal longer than that. His offensive production is bound to drop substantially in a third or fourth year, and at something like $15 million per year, we don’t need that albatross in those years. Additionally, we have a capable young rising star that could play there: Tyler Moore. The guy needs a plce to play, and has some real nice pop in his bat. The big question is his glove. I have not see him play enough at first base (I don’t get to see any minors games where he played there extensively), so I don’t know his true fielding skills. But if that’s his natural position and the Nats had him paying there in the minors, then they must believe in his glove. Michael Morse could also be an option. Although he played capable defense as a regular there in 2011, he was not a gold glove caliber fielder. Whichever way the chips fall, I believe we’ll have a more than capable solution at first base.

Time To Respect The Magic

I haven’t posted in a long time, and to be honest, much of the reason lies in the fact that I did not want to jinx a team that is having a truly magical season, by any measure.  I’ll be the first to admit that I should eat some crow, for all of the criticizing I’ve done in past years over the decision-making with the team.  But obviously this was done out of frustration, not dislike.  Since we’re coming off of a 3 game sweep at the hands of the incessantly pursuant Braves, I felt it was ok to chime back in.  Not to criticize, but to be comfortable that I can break my silence without jinxing the team.  I still feel confident about winning the division.  We hit a speed bump this weekend.  But still maintaining a 5 1/2 game lead after that is our reward for building such a cushion throughout a consistent and sometimes dominant regular season up until this point.  Let straighten this out against the Dodgers, lock down the division, and continue to fight for the best record in the NL and the home-field advantage that goes with it. 

New Year, New Hopes

After letting the Gio Gonzales trade digest for a few weeks, I’m finally ready to talk about it, as well as some recent thoughts about Prince Fielder. When I first learned of the Gonzales trade, I was pretty disappointed. My main reason being, why trade away prospects that you’ve drafted and developed, and who have seen some early success in the major leagues? You could just as easily sign a free agent, and still keep your prospects! Trades make sense during pennant races. I get it. But ones like this disappoint me. The simple reason for this trade though, is money. The Nats control Gonzales for several more seasons, and they will have to pay him far less, even after arbitration, than they would have had to pay a C.J. Wilson type player. (and I’m not saying I really liked Wilson as a solution here).

However, if it turns out that the Nationals are truly serious about signing Fielder (today’s wildly conflicting reports notwithstanding), then the Gio trade makes good sense to me, because we’d be truly ready to contend this year. I’m usually one to temper people’s enthusiasm over the Nats’ 2012 playoff prospects, if only because the Phillies are still the Phillies, the Braves are the Braves, and the Marlins signed some huge free agents. That all being said, if we sign Fielder, I may jump on the playoff bandwagon for this season. The protection he would give to other hitters in the lineup, not to mention his flat-out production, would be amazing. I truly hope they can pull this off. And I don’t mean a 10 year contract where we will eat the last 4 years of it. How about a 6-7 year deal, where we’ll only need to eat the final year of it?

There are people who are saying that if we sign him, we can’t sign 2-3 of our other core players. This is absolutely not true. It’s not an either/or situation. That’s totally up to the Lerners and how much money they would like to spend. While I certainly would not like to be a foolish spender on overpriced free agents, you can’t argue with the success of a team like the Yankees, who sign the players they want no matter what it takes. The result is that they’ve been to the playoffs 16 out of the past 17 seasons. It’s hard to poke a hole in that kind of success. I’m not saying they are perfect or should be our model by any means. But you don’t have to budget for just one or two big contracts. You can invest more money at your discretion and the team, franchise, fans and owners can all be winners.

Thoughts on the Winter Meetings

It’s been a while since I’ve posted anything, so I figure I better get something up in November before the month totally passes me by.  Been  recovering from rotator cuff surgery, so typing takes twice as long as usual.  I’m using Chien-Ming Wang as a little bit of inspiration, since my shoulder feels worse right now than it did pre-surgery.  Eventually they say it will be much better, so I have to hope I’ll be 100% again at some point.  Wang came back to pitch in MLB, so I’m optimistic that I can get back to a weekend warrior level.

Many fans are keeping their eye on the winter meetings in Dallas, to see if the Nats come out of there with a piece or two that would enable a playoff push next year.  I’m all for finding the right pieces, but not at the expense of mortgaging the future.  Like many close observers of the Nats, I think 2013 will be the year to make a serious playoff push.  I’m not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic, while playing in the same division as a few other perennial playoff teams.  I would like to see us acquire a front line starter, either as an innings-eater and staff leader, such as Buhrle or possibly Oswalt (with an incentive-laden contract) via free agency, if the price is right.  Or, we could trade for a higher-caliber, entering-their-prime starter, if they are under contract for at least 3 more years.  A center fielder with either leadoff capability or power would be great, and I acknowledge that need along with everyone else.  But I’d like to see a 1-2 year solution there, barring a trade.  In 2 years, we’ll have a glut of outfielders, and not enough room to play them.

As for first base, I’m not sure whether to laugh or be angry at those who suggest we sign some help at first base.  I’d prefer to keep Morse at first, for no other reason that him playing there coincided with him hitting over .300 and 30+ home runs.  But if the front office is intent on playing LaRoche at first, then Morse can shift there when LaRoche needs a day off, which also frees up an outfield spot for a bench player to get a spot start and some ABs.  To use a roster spot on another 1B would be downright silly.

If we enter spring training with no major signings or trades, I’m fine with that too, as long as that means we get a long look this season at Milone, Peacock, Lombardozzi, and others to see if they are going to be long-term pieces of the puzzle.  And my acquiescence to that plan in 2012 would be with the strong assumption that we would be major free agent players for the pieces we need going into 2013.

Developing Players, Playing to Win, or Coddling Players?

Sunday’s game was an interesting September game for a couple of reasons. The Nationals, particularly Davey Johnson, have said that they plan to play a lot of the younger guys and September callups as the season winds down so that they can have a better idea of who might help them in the bigs next season. Fair enough. People acknowledge that this might have an effect on wins and losses. But others argue that you need to keep one eye on each objective, so you can finish strong and show potential free agents that this team is indeed on the rise so that they might sign here (and not have to be wildly overpaid to do so).

Back to Sunday. When Wang gave up the 2 run homer to make it 4-3, a lot of folks groaned that Davey left him in one pitch too long. But hey, he wanted to see Wang pitch under pressure, and see how his shoulder would hold up going deep into a game. Fair enough. When he took Wang out, he was forced to make a double switch because the pitcher’s spot in the order was due up the next inning. so Jonny Gomes came out and Ankiel trotted out to right field. I wouldn’t have thought much of it until Bernadina subsequently replaced Morse as a defensive substitute.

If you’re protecting a one run lead and have no problem taking out your best power hitter for a defensive replacement late in the game, the manager is asserting himself and putting a defensively superior outfielder out there to try and help secure the win. So then why did Ankiel and Werth not switch positions? For the majority of the game, sure, play Werth in center because you want to find out if he can play there in a potential outfield of Morse, Werth and Harper. But late in the game, if you’re taking your big bat out of the lineup and putting egos aside, why can’t you do that to Werth?  The Nats aren’t the Yankees; they don’t have players that are “protected” from that kind of stuff. Everyone knows that Ankiel is a superior CF to Werth, and I don’t even recall Ankiel playing in right field previously this season. Werth played right field for most of the season.  If you are intent on winning the game, you make that switch. No brainer. The cherry on top is the number of incredible plays that Ankiel has made out there in just the past 2 weeks. But nope. Werth is now protected because of his $126 million dollar contract, and not even Davey Johnson had the guts to make that move. If he’s around and making clouded decisions like that next year, it will be a real disappointment.

Strasburg to Make 2011 Debut on September 6th

Assuming there are no setbacks health-wise, Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg will return to the majors and make his first start with the Nationals on September 6th, at home versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to a source close to the Nationals.

Strasburg will pitch tomorrow night, the 17th, for the Hagerstown Suns. The Nationals want to keep him on a regular 5-day schedule, so he would then likely pitch for the Suns again on the 22nd. August 27th would be a start for the AAA Syracuse Chiefs, and then Strasburg’s final tuneup would be on September 1st, pitching for the Harrisburg Senators. Nationals brass have been careful to make sure he pitches in a “controlled” environment (read: home ballparks) during his minor league rehab starts.

The schedule sets up nicely for the Nationals, as they would get Strasburg’s first three major league starts of the season at home: September 6th vs the Dodgers, September 11th vs the Astros, and September 16th vs the Marlins. In fact, the Nationals have stopped letting season ticket holders redeem their Red Carpet Rewards (additional free tickets) for those specific three games, instead hoping to monetize Strasburg’s return and sell out the stadium. It should be an electric first night for Strasburg at Nats Park on September 6th.

Rizzo: Wake Up!

Last night had to be one of the more deflating losses I’ve seen. Blowing an 8-run lead is tough, but considering that we’ve had our share of luck this season, I can’t dwell on it too much. But one of the contributing factors was just too much to take. Sean Burnett has got to go. Granted we had already given back 6 runs of our 8-run lead, but a 2-run homer on the first pitch? Burnett has already blown so many games this season, you need both hands to count them. And the season in only halfway over.

I realize we need a LOOGY in our bullpen, (lefty one out guy) but Burnett has been anything but. I’m confident that we’ll bring up JC Romero to fill that role at some point, but why wait any longer? Bring someone up from the minors for a cup of coffee until Romero (or someone better) is ready. Hey Rizzo, here is quick lesson: the worst thing that can happen when a pitcher throws a pitch is serve up a home run. Not a hit batsman or a wild pitch, but a home run. It’s impossible to do anything worse. Burnett accomplished this on his first pitch. A rookie in that spot could not have done anything worse than that. Quit watching this guy ruin games for us. Do something about it, please.